Global Wind and Solar 2025: The G7 Gap

Global Wind and Solar 2025: The G7 Gap

The global clean energy transition is entering a critical turning point. According to the latest report released by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), the total pipeline of global wind and utility-scale solar projects grew by 11% in 2025, approaching 5 terawatts (TW), but this growth came mainly from China and emerging economies. As the world's wealthiest group of countries, the G7 nations' wind and solar development pipeline has remained almost stagnant, holding steady at around 520 gigawatts since 2023. This "G7 gap" is redefining the landscape of the global energy transition.

Industry Background

Against the backdrop of increasingly stringent global climate policies, the rapid expansion of renewable energy has become the core of national energy strategies. At COP28 in 2023, countries committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that wind and solar will contribute 94% of the new capacity needed to achieve this goal. Therefore, the development progress of global wind and solar projects is directly related to whether this commitment can be fulfilled.

GEM's Global Wind and Solar Power Tracker database shows that as of the end of 2025, the total capacity of announced and under-construction wind and utility-scale solar projects worldwide reached 4.9 TW, including 2.7 TW of wind and 2.2 TW of utility-scale solar. In terms of projects under construction, a total of 758 GW is being built globally, three-quarters of which is concentrated in China and India. China leads by a wide margin with 448 GW under construction, followed by India with 125 GW.

However, the "center of gravity" of global clean energy development has decisively shifted. China's planned wind and utility-scale solar capacity exceeds 1.5 TW, almost equivalent to the combined total of Brazil, Australia, India, the United States, Spain, and the Philippines. In contrast, the G7 countries' pipeline is only about 520 GW, with almost no growth since 2023. This imbalance is reflected not only in planning data but also in actual operational installed capacity.

Current Development Dynamics

In 2025, the growth rate of the global wind and utility-scale solar pipeline slowed to 11%, down from 22% in 2024. By technology, the utility-scale solar pipeline grew by 17%, exceeding 2.2 TW; the wind pipeline only grew by 7%, with the growth rate falling by 13 percentage points year-on-year. The slowdown in wind development is related to a series of political obstacles and auction failures. For example, wind power auctions in many countries saw undersubscription or low-price bidding, leading developers to postpone or cancel projects. Since the capacity factor of wind is generally higher than that of solar, the slowdown in wind deployment may have a more significant impact on future electricity supply.In terms of operational installed capacity, China crossed a historic threshold in 2025. According to GEM data, China's total combined capacity of wind, utility-scale solar, and distributed solar has exceeded 1.6 terawatts—nearly three times the combined total of its closest peers, the United States (368 GW) and India (163 GW). The United States added 4.9 GW of wind, 25.6 GW of utility-scale solar, and 5.5 GW of distributed solar in 2025. India, meanwhile, is advancing toward its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel installed capacity by 2030, with 125 GW of wind and utility-scale solar currently under construction.

As an important pillar of the clean energy transition, distributed solar is extremely unevenly distributed worldwide. According to IEA estimates, distributed solar accounts for approximately 42% of the world's existing and potential total solar installed capacity. GEM's Global Solar Power Tracker currently counts nearly 900 GW of operational distributed solar capacity across 31 countries/regions, with the top ten accounting for 90% of the total. China ranks first with approximately 489 GW of distributed solar capacity—more than seven times that of Germany (69 GW), which ranks second. Among G7 countries, distributed solar accounts for 57%, 68%, and 86% of total operational solar capacity in France, Germany, and Italy, respectively, highlighting the importance of distributed systems in these countries. In Latin America, Asia, and Africa, however, distributed solar development remains relatively fragmented and smaller in scale, with Taiwan and South Africa standing out as the more prominent markets.

Impact on Energy Systems

The continued expansion of the global wind and solar pipeline is reshaping the power mix. Traditionally, G7 countries have been the main drivers of renewable energy development, but their new pipeline has now nearly stalled, meaning their share of global clean energy capacity additions is shrinking. China and emerging economies, by contrast, have become the primary engines of global clean energy development, thanks to large-scale deployment and relatively low manufacturing costs.

This shift has far-reaching implications for the global energy system. On the one hand, the large-scale grid integration of wind and solar requires greater grid flexibility and carrying capacity. The rapid growth of distributed solar, particularly in Europe and North America, while helping to improve energy self-sufficiency, also imposes upgrade requirements on distribution networks. The GEM report emphasizes that wealthy countries need to increase investment in grids and energy storage to support the further expansion of distributed solar. Otherwise, even if installed capacity increases, it may not be effectively utilized due to grid bottlenecks.

On the other hand, the flow of clean energy investment is also shifting. IRENA is urging G7 countries to more than double their annual renewable energy capacity additions by 2030, but current pipeline data shows these countries are far from IRENA's recommendations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that approximately 70% of new renewable energy installations in G7 countries over the next five years will come from wind and utility-scale solar. However, the misalignment between current pipelines and this trend could prevent these countries from meeting their established energy transition targets on schedule.

Challenges AheadAlthough the global pipeline for wind and utility-scale solar totals close to 5 terawatts, multiple challenges still need to be overcome to achieve the 2030 target of tripling renewable energy. According to IRENA’s estimates, the world needs to add approximately 317 gigawatts of wind and 735 gigawatts of solar capacity annually by 2030. For utility-scale solar, 2.2 terawatts of new capacity must be added over the next five years. However, GEM data shows that even if all wind and utility-scale solar projects planned to come online by 2030 are built on schedule, the world will still face a 1-terawatt wind gap and a 1.6-terawatt utility-scale solar gap.

Even more concerning, project delays and cancellations have become the norm. GEM’s previous analysis pointed out that nearly 40% of planned wind and solar projects will be connected to the grid later than expected, or be shelved, or even canceled. The slowdown in wind pipeline growth in 2025 is consistent with the forecasts of the IEA and BloombergNEF, which project that wind and utility-scale solar growth could plateau by 2030.

For G7 countries, the challenges are particularly severe. These countries hold about half of the world’s wealth, yet they account for only 11% of the global potential for new wind and utility-scale solar capacity. If this trend continues, G7 countries will not only find it difficult to fulfill their climate commitments, but may also lose their dominant position in the future competition over clean energy technology and industrial supply chains. Moreover, failed wind auctions, slow transmission grid permitting, and policy uncertainty are pressing issues that developed countries need to resolve.

Future Outlook

Over the next five to twenty years, the path of the global energy transition will depend on whether countries can overcome the above obstacles. China will undoubtedly continue to dominate the global wind and solar market, driving sustained growth in installed capacity. Emerging economies such as India, Brazil, and Southeast Asian countries will also become important growth poles. Meanwhile, distributed solar still has tremendous development potential worldwide, especially in developing countries, where it is not only an effective tool for solving energy poverty but also an important means of enhancing energy system resilience.

For G7 countries, closing the “G7 gap” requires a multi-pronged strategy. First, the approval processes for wind and solar projects must be simplified to reduce administrative delays. Second, large-scale investment in grid infrastructure and energy storage systems will be crucial. Third, long-term and stable policy signals must be provided to attract investment. The forecasts of both IRENA and the IEA indicate that if G7 countries cannot expand their renewable energy pipelines quickly enough, their energy transition goals will be at risk of falling short.

Ultimately, the development of wind and solar power is not just an energy issue; it is a reflection of national competitiveness. Countries that can rapidly deploy clean energy will likely gain an advantage in the future global energy market. Whether the G7 countries can catch up will determine their position in the global energy landscape of the 21st century. The next phase of the global energy transition may no longer be a game for a few countries, but a systemic transformation involving all economies.