The largest source of global energy supply growth in 2025: renewable energy, led by solar power.

The largest source of global energy supply growth in 2025: renewable energy, led by solar

In 2025, the global Total Energy Supply (TES) exceeded 600 EJ for the first time, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, continuing the long-term upward trend. According to the 75th edition of the *Statistical Review of World Energy*, renewable energy became the largest source of global energy supply growth—this is the first time outside of economic recession periods. Among renewables, solar energy contributed 71% of the growth, followed by wind power. However, fossil fuels continued to expand in absolute terms, accounting for 86% of global energy supply, with carbon emissions increasing by 1.1% year-on-year. This contradictory pattern highlights the tension between the speed and depth of the global energy transition.

Industry Background

Global energy demand continues to grow, driven mainly by industrialization in emerging economies, population growth, and the expansion of digital infrastructure (especially AI data centers). In 2025, the penetration rate of renewable energy in power generation further increased, but fossil fuels still dominated the total energy supply. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that solar photovoltaic costs have continued to decline, making it one of the most economical power sources in most regions, driving rapid growth in installed capacity. At the same time, the policy environment is clearly diverging: the European Union is accelerating renewable energy deployment through plans such as REPowerEU, while fossil fuel consumption in the United States has rebounded under the influence of the Trump administration.

Current Development Trends

Solar Energy: Leading the World in Growth Rate

Solar power generation achieved 30% growth in 2025, accounting for 8.7% of global total electricity generation, surpassing wind power (8.4%) for the first time and nearly on par with nuclear power (8.8%). The growth in solar installed capacity has benefited from a sharp drop in module prices, the widespread adoption of distributed photovoltaics, and an explosion in emerging markets. Pakistan is a typical case: from 2021 to 2025, its residential and off-grid solar installations surged from 2.1 GW to 23.4 GW, driven by soaring electricity prices, grid instability, and zero import tariffs. In just four years, the share of solar power generation jumped from 3% to 22%, leading the government to cancel scheduled LNG cargoes for 2026-2027 and renegotiate long-term gas supply contracts.

Wind Power: Steady Growth, but Slowing Down

Wind power grew by 8.2% year-on-year, still the second-largest source of renewable energy growth, but at a slower pace than solar. Offshore wind projects continue to advance in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, but supply chain bottlenecks and permitting delays have constrained faster expansion.

European Union: Accelerated Energy Transition, Large-Scale Replacement of Fossil Fuels### EU: Accelerated Energy Transition, Large-Scale Replacement of Fossil Fuels

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU has accelerated the deployment of renewable energy. In 2025, wind and solar together supplied 30% of electricity, a significant increase from 19% in 2021. This growth effectively replaced coal and gas power: gas-fired power generation fell by 15%, and coal-fired power by 38%. In 2025, combined wind and solar generation reached 852 TWh, exceeding the total generation from coal, gas, and oil (760 TWh). Ember analysis indicates that new wind and solar installations between 2022 and 2025 avoided €72 billion in fossil fuel imports, with the main beneficiaries being Germany, Spain, and Italy.

China and India: Slowing Carbon Emission Growth

China's oil consumption declined for the second consecutive year, with the spread of electric vehicles curbing fuel demand; coal consumption remained unchanged from the previous year. India's coal consumption grew by only 0.6%, far below the ten-year average growth rate of 3.6%. However, U.S. coal consumption increased by 10%, pushing global emissions higher.

Impact on the Energy System

The rapid growth of renewable energy is reshaping the electricity mix. The distributed nature of solar power is making the power system more decentralized. In countries like Pakistan, a "consumer revolution" has emerged—users installing their own photovoltaics pose challenges for grid load forecasting and power planning. EU experience shows that large-scale wind and solar deployment can effectively reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and enhance energy security. However, the absolute volume of fossil fuels is still growing, indicating that the overall energy system's decarbonization has not yet entered a "downward trajectory."

Challenges Ahead

• Insufficient grid adaptability: High shares of renewable energy require flexible grids and storage support, but many regions lag in transmission capacity and storage deployment.
• Lock-in of fossil fuel infrastructure: 86% of global energy supply still comes from fossil fuels. Reducing existing emissions is more difficult than adding new clean energy.
• Policy uncertainty: Policy reversals in countries like the U.S. may drag down global emissions reduction progress.
• Supply chain bottlenecks: Raw materials for wind power and energy storage (e.g., rare earths, lithium) are concentrated, posing geopolitical risks.
• Lagging market design: The rapid growth of distributed solar is disrupting traditional electricity markets, sparking controversy over net metering policy adjustments.

Future Outlook

Over the next 5-20 years, renewable energy is expected to continue dominating the increase in energy supply. Solar power, with its cost advantages and policy support, is poised to become the world's largest power source by 2030. The EU plans to reach a 45% share of renewables by 2030, while China aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030. However, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, fossil fuels must decline rapidly from their peak, requiring accelerated deployment of energy storage, grid upgrades, and commercialization of carbon capture technologies. In the global energy competition, whoever can first build a power system centered on renewable energy will gain a low-carbon competitive advantage.